Zambia Turns To China After US Fails To Deliver

At the beginning of last year I was invited to a 'High-Level engagement on Strengthening the Lobito Corridor and Critical Mineral Supply Chains' held on the margins of the 2025 Mining Indaba. Perhaps I had expected too much from the US delegation considering the change of administration. Nevertheless, the meeting ultimately proved to be an enlightening experience.

Everyone was very polite. We had a briefing from an economist from the Economist before representatives from Angola and Zambia held a panel discussion about Lobito's wonderful prospects. A big wig from the African Development Bank emphasised the bank’s on-going commitment to the project, but everyone could read between the lines.

After the meeting the delegates went upstairs for drinks and canapes. A jazz pianist created an ambiance. The gregarious Zambian transport minister, Frank Tayali, had been adamant during the panel discussion that Zambia would welcome US investment. However, there was nothing but small talk from the US representatives who had come empty-handed.

It was a strange experience and I'm not surprised to hear that funding for the project has since been suspended. Perhaps this is simply because Trump refuses to endorse anything suggested by Joe Biden or the European Union. Perhaps it is just a normal shortcoming of election cycles with new administrations needing time to re-access their strategic priorities. 

Nevertheless, the Lobito Corridor was a fantastic opportunity for the United States to redirect Zambian mineral exports West, gain access to Angolan rare earths, and secure a foothold in West Africa. This should have been a no brainer for an in-coming administration.

The cost of the project was relatively modest with the US contribution estimated to eventually total around $1 billion dollars, matched by a similar contribution from development banks and the European Union for a total of around $3 billion. This would have supported railway upgrades to improve the West’s access to Africa’s minerals with no obligation to support beneficiation.  

Considering the Trump administration has given $20 billion to bailout Argentina, largely due to Trump’s personal affinity for Millei, these are not particularly large numbers. If the US wants to diversify its critical minerals supply chain away from China, then the Lobito Corridor would have been both a rational and affordable investment.  

However, with the Trump administration halting funding for engineering and feasibility studies, the Lobito Corridor project appears dead in the water. Meanwhile, China continues to put its money where its mouth is and looks well set to continue expanding its influence across Africa.   

Despite rail and electricity bottlenecks, Chinese firms have been buying up copper mines and building out refining capacity in Zambia. Beijing’s recently unveiled plan to upgrade the 1,800km strategic railway artery connecting Zambia’s Copperbelt to the port at Dar es Salaam in Tanzania is consequently a significant geopolitical move in light of the US withdrawal from the region.

The upgraded railway line will make China’s Zambia investments significantly more profitable, securing China’s access to Zambia’s copper and entrenching its dominant economic position on the African continent. Considering the volumes of copper Chinese miners can book on the line, TAZARA could prove a superior alternative to the once-promised Lobito Corridor.

For historical reasons, this may be a fitting outcome, considering the TAZARA Railway was the largest overseas infrastructural project undertaken by China during the Mao Zedong era when the line was first inaugurated in 1975. The rail project epitomized Sino-African co-operation, minimizing Zambia’s dependence on the politically ostracized apartheid South Africa.

However, by the new millennium, new shipping routes were redirecting regional trade flows, and the ageing railway saw its prominence gradually decline. In recent decades, the condition of the line has deteriorated and volumes have dropped off substantially. Nevertheless, considering the growing demand for critical minerals, the underutilised railway offers enormous potential.   

As such, the recent announcement of a rebuild holds immense geopolitical significance with Tanzania and Zambia aligning more closely with a Chinese government determined to further solidify its presence in Africa. This is a mutually beneficial relationship, with African countries looking to boost trade and attract investment while China gains critical resources and political allegiances while making a healthy return on its investments. 

The new $1.4 billion investment from the China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (the CCECC was the line’s original builder) was recently signed off by the governments of Tanzania, Zambia, and China. Structured as a 30-year concession to CCECC, the line will eventually be handed over to its African hosts at the conclusion of the initial concession period.

With an initial three-year phase dedicated to the procurement of new rolling stock, signalling upgrades, and track rehabilitation, the investment includes $1.1 billion for track modernization and roughly $300 million for 34 locomotives and 760 wagons. After completion of the initial phase, TAZARA aims to drastically increase annual freight tonnage from a current average of 500,000 to over 2 million metric tons per annum.

Once the railway is refurbished, Zambia’s landlocked copper miners will enjoy a profitable alternative to South Africa’s congested ports and border crossings, with the upgraded line reducing costs and export times. This should boost employment and economic growth as adjacent industries benefit from the expanded logistics infrastructure.   

Landlocked Zambia is expected to be the biggest beneficiary, with higher copper exports helping the country capitalize on its resource wealth. Frank Tayali, Zambia's minister of transport and logistics, has said that the revitalization is "not just about restoring a railway line but reigniting a vision of regional integration, economic growth, and shared prosperity".

During the signing ceremony, Tayali added that the project would provide farmers, traders and other industries with a critical link to markets across the region while creating new opportunities for young people. That’s the crux of the matter. Africa’s youthful, booming economies require infrastructure investments to maximise their full potential and China is answering the call.

The US had its opportunity. But political uncertainty in Washington combined with a general disinterest in co-operating with Africa and a lack of urgency about securing access to critical minerals (despite claims to the contrary), means Zambia has instead turned to China. 

Naturally, China’s de facto control over such a large portion of the world’s critical minerals (which arguably includes much of Russia’s mineral exports now verboten in the West) gives Beijing a major advantage in its strategic competition with the United States, while ensuring security of supply for its massive industrial base.  

Meanwhile, Africa will enjoy the benefits of improved infrastructure, increased economic growth and a closer ties with a partner who follows through on its promises.

While the US applies tariffs and travel restrictions on countries across the African continent, China is opening its domestic market to African exports and making critical infrastructure investments. As such, it may be that the competition for influence in Africa is already over.