The Nord Stream Mystery

The Nord Stream pipeline explosion has all the ingredients of a classic whodunnit. Opening with a mysterious incident, limited information, and a long list of suspects, we are forced to use deductive reasoning to identify the culprit. Ongoing investigations have failed to produce any concrete results while the main protagonists keep changing their story. Without a famous detective to solve the case and obtain a confession, readers will have to decide for themselves who the guilty party really is.

On the 26th of September 2022, the Nord Stream pipelines, built to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea, are rendered inoperable by three massive explosions. The Western press immediately blames the Russians. The Russians, of course, blame the West. Neither side have any evidence in support of their claims. Investigations are undertaken by the surrounding countries, but no results are made public, and the mystery remains unsolved.  

Four months later, a Pulitzer prize winning journalist publishes a provocative article. The journalist’s report details how the US planned and executed the destruction of the pipelines with help from the Norwegian navy, and Western media outlets suddenly change their tune. The destruction of the $20 billion Swiss-consortium-owned pipelines was actually the work of pro-Ukrainian saboteurs, we are subsequently informed, although both German military leadership and the Ukrainian government are reluctant to endorse this view.

The initial explanation was that Russia had destroyed the pipelines to increase European electricity prices. The Russians, however, argued this made little sense considering that in doing so they would be giving up all the gas export revenues that the pipelines provided. The Russians accused the British and/or Americans of blowing up the pipelines to stop Germany from backtracking on sanctions and its military support for Ukraine. Both sides argued that only a state actor could have managed such a sophisticated operation, involving expert diving teams and high volumes of explosives within NATO controlled waters.

The plot thickened when notable American investigative journalist, Seymour Hersch, claimed the sabotage was a covert operation conducted by the US and Norway, on the orders of President Joe Biden. Biden, did after all, tell reporters that the Nord Stream pipelines would be stopped if Russia invaded Ukraine, giving credence to this version of events. The US operation was allegedly carried out to ensure continued German support for the war against Russia and to make sure the EU would stop purchasing Russian energy. Although the EU is still Russia’s biggest customer for energy exports, US LNG exports to Europe have soared since the natural gas pipelines were destroyed.  

According to Hersh, US Navy divers planted explosives on the pipelines during a NATO exercise in June 2022, the perfect cover, and detonated them remotely two months later using a sophisticated electronic buoy. The White House rejected the Prize-winning journalist's report as "completely false and fictitious". Meanwhile, the Russian media ran with the story, condemning the US and its allies for covering up their crime while noting that the US suspiciously vetoed a resolution in support of a UN investigation into the blasts.

But that wasn’t the end of the story. Another twist saw major newspapers such as The Times (UK), The New York Times (US), and Die Zeit (DE), publish new reports that a “pro-Ukrainian group” was behind the sabotage, a massive departure from initial claims that only a state actor such as Russia could have pulled off such a complex operation. Anonymous sources emphasised that no British or American nationals were involved, according to the latest reports.

The Russians were unimpressed. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called it "shameful" for journalists to attempt to blame the attack on Ukraine, while Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ridiculed Western media reports, saying that they were intended to deceive the European audience. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov suggested that these articles were published to divert attention from Hersh's damning report.

In fact, Medvedev went so far as to characterize the most recent reports as a “B movie”. Medvedev questioned how the supposed saboteurs where able to perform an operation requiring two tonnes of explosives from a sailing boat “before disappearing into the sunset” without being noticed by anyone “in a sea full of NATO ships and international surveillance systems.” The Former President (who is considered to have enjoyed relatively warm relations with the West compared with Putin) also questioned why the initial claims of Russian involvement had been so quickly dropped and why the EU was still arming Ukraine if Ukrainian terrorists had destroyed critical European infrastructure.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius avoided answering questions about how the Nord Stream sabotage case could impact Western military aid for Kiev if it is found that pro-Ukrainian groups were involved in the pipeline blasts. Pistorius said Germany would wait for confirmation before making a decision. He dismissed the claims presented in the latest reports as "hypothetical", suggesting that the unlikely story may simply be an attempt to frame Ukraine in a false flag attack.

Denmark, Sweden, and Germany have informed the UN Security Council that their investigations are ongoing. The Russians have complained that they have not been permitted to join the investigations or conduct one of their own. Asked for his take, the Ukraine’s Defense Minister said the latest reports were a compliment to his special forces while denying Kiev’s involvement. He expressed confidence that the official investigations would provide a detailed account of what really happened.

In summary, six months of investigations have produced no concrete results and are still on-going. Russia and the West blamed each other, claiming only a state actor could have undertaken such a technically challenging covert mission. That was until a notable US journalist pinned the blame on the US who then changed their story to blame ‘Ukrainians’. Germany remains uncertain, Ukraine’s government denies any involvement, and no-one has confessed. It seems the Nord Stream Mystery may never be solved, and readers will have to decide for themselves who was behind it.