The Intricacies of BRICS Expansion

Major decisions on BRICS expansion are expected to take place at the BRICS Summit this month, with as many as twenty nations interested in joining or having already formally applied. However, there is still debate about what the criteria for admission should be. In addition to the individual suitability of each country, the existing members will need to consider the overall balance of the bloc. Candidates would require the unanimous consent of current member states to join so agreement will have to be reached on a case-by-case by case basis as new members are admitted. 

Currently comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, BRICS already includes four of the five largest emerging market economies in the world. As such, other sizeable emerging markets like Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, are all good candidates. These are the largest developing countries in South-East Asia, Central America, North Africa, and the Middle East, respectively, with none of these regions currently represented within the BRICS grouping.

Other notable nations that are considered strong candidates for BRICS membership include Argentina, as well as Bangladesh and the UAE which are both members of the BRICS New Development Bank. In terms of economic size this list could be expanded to include the likes of Turkey, Thailand, Vietnam, Nigeria, Malaysia and the Philippines. All of which are among the 40 largest economies in the world.   

While Mexico has been invited to some BRICS events, due to its close ties to the US, inclusion in the bloc is considered unlikely. Nevertheless, there are reasons why it may be worth considering. Trump has threatened to direct the US military against Mexican drug cartels if re-elected, while Biden has admitted that DEA officials already operate across the border without Mexico’s permission. As such, Mexico may decide to follow in Brazil’s footsteps in maintaining close economic ties to the US while advancing its political autonomy via BRICS membership.

Indonesia and Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, have a clearer path as both have become increasingly pre-aligned with the BRICS. Saudi Arabia has worked closely with China in recent months to normalize relations with Iran and has also discussed de-dollarizing a portion of its oil trade. These are significant events. The Chinese brokered détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia earlier this year will likely bring an end to the war in Yemen and has coincided with Syria’s re-admission to the Arab league. A united Middle East brings increased stability to a region boasting several candidates for BRICS expansion.

Syria has also expressed interest in joining BRICS but is less likely to be included at this stage due to the presence of US troops in the country. That said, the normalization of ties between Syria and its neighbors is a political win for Russia who has propped up the Syrian government and is working to persuade Turkey and Iran to help bring an end to the conflict in that country. The influence of BRICS heavyweights like Russia and China in the Arab World is clearly on the rise and half of the countries who want to join the BRICS bloc are Muslim majority nations.     

Indonesia is one of them. The largest emerging market economy that is not yet a member of BRICS, Indonesia is already advancing one of the bloc’s primary objectives: trade in domestic currencies. President Joko Widodo expressly mentioned sanctions on Russia as a motivation for developing non-Western payment systems, stating that “Visa and Mastercard could be a problem”. Meanwhile, the country’s Central Bank Governor, Perry Warjiyo, stated that “the direction is the same as the BRICS”, when discussing Indonesia’s plans to conduct trade in domestic currencies.

Plans to increase trade in domestic currencies will certainly appeal to Egypt who has suffered a balance of payments and currency crisis in recent months and appears enthusiastic about BRICS membership. Having already become a member of the BRICS’ New Development Bank earlier this year, the North African giant is a strong contender to become Africa’s second BRICS member after South Africa, which was the first country to join the expanded bloc.   

South Africa is the first and only country to join the initial Bric grouping, enjoying the privilege of being the only African member state in the organization while other economically more significant countries from across the world have yet to be included. As such, it is interesting that South Africa has joined the other BRICS nations in embracing the idea of expansion.

While the addition of new countries could dilute the influence of individual members it would give more weight to the group as a whole. Clearly, this is seen as being more important than maintaining the current structure. The BRICS has already surpassed the G7 on a number of metrics and expansion could see the group of emerging markets obtain even more influence over global affairs.

India originally suggested that there should be strict criteria for membership, although the world’s most populous nation has since softened its stance. Perhaps India has calculated that it would be worth supporting BRICS expansion, even absent explicit criteria, because this would dilute China’s economic weighting and prove India’s willingness to work with other developing nations as New Delhi seeks to position itself as the voice of the Global South.

Concerned with maintaining cohesion in the group, Brazil has floated allowing countries to join as associate members before being gradually promoted to full BRICS status. However, this counteracts the egalitarian image BRICS wishes to promote. Although larger, regionally significant economies are likely to be prioritized, the inclusion of smaller nations supports the notion that BRICS seeks to build a multipolar world order rather than simply replace a Western dominated system with their own.

That said, Brazil’s concerns about the overall balance of the grouping remain valid. Although all the current members maintain warm relations with Iran, the ascension of US sanctioned states like Iran, Syria, Zimbabwe, and Venezuela could make BRICS appear anti-Western, which is not the case. South Africa already faces difficulties trying to balance its economic ties to the West and its political ties to Russia, so the ascension of other sanctioned nations to BRICS could complicate matters further.

Although certain criteria might be agreed upon, candidates will likely be considered on a case-by-case basis, and ultimately, all the existing BRICS member states will have to be in agreement as the group weighs up the suitability of the individual applicants against the overall balance of the bloc.