Peace in Ukraine Would Be Good For Africa

There is an ancient African proverb which says that when elephants fight it is the grass that gets trampled. This has certainly been the case in the war between Russia and NATO in Ukraine. When these military giants collided, African states were caught in the crossfire. Poverty and interest rates increased, along with the prices for much needed fuels, foods, and fertilizers.

While direct trade exposure is relatively low, Africa still relies on Russia and Ukraine for key inputs. Similarly, although Africa is not particularly reliant on imported Russian energy (which only accounts for about 3% of supplies across the continent), the global nature of financial markets mean higher energy prices typically lead to higher inflation and interest rates for everyone.   

This is precisely what happened after the conflict in Ukraine triggered a surge in global commodity prices. Oil prices soared by about 40% in 2022 after Russia’s invasion, while food prices climbed 20% and fertilizer costs spiked 50%. This exacerbated financial strains across a continent without the money creating privileges developed economies typically use to absorb financial shocks.  

In countries like Kenya and Egypt, a heavy reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports, which accounted for between 65%-85% of supplies, exposed vulnerabilities in Africa’s food security system. Fertilizer supplies were also badly affected, with Egypt, Ethiopia, Morocco, Senegal, and South Africa sourcing 10%-40% of their fertilizer imports from the warring nations.   

Energy costs also skyrocketed at the outbreak of the war, with oil traders pricing in disruptions to Russian oil supplies that did not even materialise. Higher energy prices strained both government budgets and consumer’s wallets with some African nations seeing fuel prices more than double. Policymakers were forced to choose between absorbing the costs and risking fiscal distress or passing higher prices on to consumers and fuelling social unrest.

Commodity price increases not only cost Africa billions of dollars through higher import costs, they also had other knock on effects that further constrained economic growth. During other 21^st century economic downturns, there has been plenty of Keynesian countercyclical stimulus, with governments and central banks stimulating the global economy. But this time was different.

Following Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine’s civil war, central banks around the world responded to higher levels of global inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes, triggering capital outflows, currency depreciation, and increased borrowing costs for many African nations. This compounded the negative economic effects of higher commodity prices and was a brutal blow to many of the world’s poorest economies as they struggled to recover from the pandemic.

Beyond economic metrics, the cascading crises of the Ukraine war and COVID-19 pandemic have also severely disrupted the continent’s poverty reduction efforts, with an estimated 18 million more Africans pushed into poverty in 2022. This in addition to over 500 million people already living below the poverty line. Food insecurity remains acute, affecting one in five Africans, with women and children disproportionately impacted.  

Nigeria exemplifies these challenges. In Africa’s most populous country, rising commodity prices exposed structural vulnerabilities, pushing inflation higher while exacerbating foreign exchange shortages. Official data indicates a sharp decline in durum wheat imports from Russia in 2022, disrupting a primary source of affordable grain. At the same time, the IMF’s recommendation that Nigeria remove currency controls and fuel subsidies further worsened inflation.  

The collapse of the Black Sea grain deal, initially brokered by the UN and Türkiye in 2022 to ensure Ukrainian exports reached global markets, compounded supply uncertainties, forcing Nigeria to ramp up wheat imports despite soaring prices. Moscow withdrew from the deal in 2023, arguing that weapons were being smuggled into Ukraine and that the bulk of shipments had bypassed Africa in favour of wealthier nations.

In response, the Kremlin pledged direct food aid, delivering hundreds of thousands of tons of grain to African nations. This food and fertilizer diplomacy has led many African countries to align with Russia’s stance on the conflict and illustrates why alleviating food poverty should be a key priority for the Western world if it ever hopes to win back Africa’s support in its competition for influence with the rising BRICS nations. 

Nigeria’s energy sector also faced headwinds from war induced trade flow shifts. The country’s crude exports to India, historically a key market, declined significantly as the South Asian nation capitalized on discounted Russian oil. Data from Nigeria’s national oil company, NNPC Limited, shows exports to India plunging from an average of 250,000 barrels per day before the war to just 120,000 bpd in 2024, underscoring the ripple effects of global supply reconfigurations.

To make matters worse, much of this Russian crude shipped to India was refined at a profit and re-exported to the European Union despite Brussels’ anti-Russia sanctions. President Trump made note of this hypocrisy when he pointed out in one of his social media posts that since the outbreak of the war the EU has spent more money on Russian energy than on aid to Ukraine.   

While the current US administration appears largely disinterested in Africa, Trump’s efforts at achieving peace in Ukraine would certainly go a long way towards compensating the continent for his extreme disinterest. At the same time, on-going trade tensions create an opportunity for Africa to carve out a more prominent position for itself in the global trade system.

As trade routes are reconfigured, Africa must utilize its control over key minerals to barter for trade agreements that prioritize infrastructure, healthcare, and education investment over traditional aid models which keep Africa dependant on foreign nations. Meanwhile, BRICS should promote the continent as an engine for global growth and an indispensable investment destination.  

So while Trump’s trade war has unleashed uncertainty, his efforts towards achieving peace in Ukraine could help a rapidly developing African continent achieve its full potential. And while it remains to be seen whether the evolving multipolar landscape will bring tangible benefits or reinforce old patterns, one thing is certain. Africa is better off when the elephants aren’t fighting.