Food and Fertilizer May Be Russia’s Most Powerful Weapons

While much of the agricultural production of countries with large populations like India and China is for domestic consumption, Russia is a major food exporter and has identified food and fertilizer as a key tool for securing its geopolitical influence. Russia is rapidly increasing its agricultural output in an attempt to diversify its economy and is using food and fertilizer diplomacy to gain political influence across Africa. This is a major concern for Western powers who are losing influence on the continent and have failed to effectively isolate Russia.

In a recent interview with Le Parisien, the French foreign minister, Stephane Sejourne, warned that Russia’s victory in Ukraine could see the Kremlin gain control of one-third of global wheat exports. The minister emphasized that France would face a significant food crisis and escalating inflation as a result. As major wheat producers themselves, France could always tax wheat exports to avoid such a scenario. But French wheat exporters and the foreign ministry are certainly at risk because Russian dominance may lower French wheat export revenues while reducing the country’s political influence.

Russia already accounted for 80% of Egypt’s wheat imports prior to Egypt joining the BRICS and is a significant supplier to Turkey, another important country in terms of its location on key trade routes. But the biggest moves are being made in sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia is literally giving away free wheat and fertilizer to secure its political influence. The largest country by land mass has had several bumper harvests, lowering prices and reinforcing Russia’s position as the world’s top wheat exporter. It supplied roughly 22% of global wheat exports in the 2023, compared to 16% in 2022, with forecasts trending higher as output in Russia increases and output from the Ukraine declines.

This is partly the result of sanctions. In response to sanctions following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, import substitution proved a major catalyst for increasing Russia's agricultural output. Russia subsequently overtook France as the biggest wheat supplier to Algeria and has surpassed US wheat exports to Nigeria and Egypt too. This has made Russia an influential player in global food markets, with many African states particularly reliant on imports of Russian grain and fertilizer.

According to the head of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, Russia has risen to become the world’s second-largest producer of mineral fertilizer after fellow BRICS member China, with a 40% increase in output over the past decade to 55 million tons per year. Russia now plans to boost output to 70 million tons over the next five years, having already overtaken the US and India in total fertilizer production. Despite sanctions, Russia remains the second largest supplier of fertilizer to Poland after Germany, and the second largest supplier to the US after Canada.

While some agricultural exports have not been shipped due to sanctions, overall, Russia's food and fertilizer exports continue to increase each year, diversifying an energy export dependent Russian economy. This could provide the Kremlin with a crucial source of export income at a time when the world is transitioning to cleaner sources of energy and has provided Putin with a perfect opportunity to win over poorer nations through food and fertilizer diplomacy.

This can be seen with recent donations of free fertilizer to countries such as Malawi, along with free grain shipments to the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Nigeria, Kenya, and Eritrea. While making its donations, Moscow has simultaneously accused the West of allowing poor African countries to go hungry by blocking Russian exports with sanctions. UN data suggests only 2% of the Ukrainian grain released for export under a UN brokered deal was actually exported to Africa, a point Moscow emphasized repeatedly when unilaterally withdrawing from the agreement.

Despite the Kremlin’s insistence that the grain deal was not being implemented as promised, most of Russia’s agricultural product is still going to market and Russia’s withdrawal was more likely the result of military logic. After several attacks on the Kerch strait bridge which connects Crimea to the Russian mainland, blockading Ukraine in the Black Sea could help Moscow defend Crimea while cutting off a desperately needed source of revenue (estimated at $6 billion per annum) for the Ukraine.

Withdrawal from the deal has also heaped pressure on Ukraine’s wheat producing neighbors. The Hungarian Agriculture Minister claimed last year that Hungarian farmers lost 40% of their income due to Ukrainian grain transitioning through the EU instead of the Black Sea, and the compensation offered by the European Commission has fallen short of the losses incurred by the farmers. Facing elections, the Polish government banned Ukrainian wheat and the agriculture minister resigned but it was too late and the ruling party was still voted out of office.

We have seen similar election results in the Netherlands, and there have been protests recently in both France and Germany where the government in Berlin cut subsidies for diesel to try and save money that was unlawfully taken from a coronavirus emergency fund and sent to the Ukraine. The increased energy costs resulting from the sanctions policy is starting to impact European farmers and affect spending priorities and this is having political consequences across the EU. The right-wing AfD is gaining ground in Germany and a pro-Russia party was recently elected in Slovakia.   

Sanctions on Russian energy have increased food production costs across Europe, as greenhouses become more expensive to run and increased diesel and fertilizer prices add to the production costs for conventional farmers. This could make EU food producers less competitive and give Russia even more influence. Russia has already annexed 20% of Ukraine's most productive farming regions and may emerge from the war with even more dominance over global grain markets.

Combined with a strategy to win over African states with free food and fertilizer and one begins to wonder whether Russia’s most powerful weapons could be diesel, wheat, and fertilizer.