Could India Bring Peace to Ukraine?

The rise of BRICS has become increasingly visible in global affairs with non-Western countries beginning to take a leading role in international diplomacy. Countries like China, South Africa, and Brazil, have all attempted to mediate an end to the Ukraine conflict. Now India is trying to broker an agreement. But can Modi’s efforts really produce a favourable outcome?

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a rail journey from Poland to the war-torn Ukrainian capital of Kiev this August, it was historically significant, marking the first visit of an Indian prime minister to Ukraine since the country gained its independence in 1991. This lent a unique weight to a visit complicated by the strategic balancing act of Indian foreign policy.

Although the trip was intended as a signal of India’s neutrality, Modi had already travelled to Moscow seven weeks earlier for his first official trip after his re-election campaign. Meanwhile, the Russian Navy chief, Admiral Alekseyevich Moiseyev, had completed a four-day official visit to India just days before Modi’s visit to Ukraine.

Modi received a lot of criticism in the West for visiting Putin and for some India is too close to the Kremlin to act as a genuinely neutral broker with respect to Ukraine. Yet, Russia and India’s historical ties put India in a unique position to negotiate a peace deal and India remains one of only a handful of countries who have managed to constructively engage both sides.  

India has emerged as the single largest buyer of Russian oil, which gives it some leverage over the Kremlin that should not be underestimated. India could use this influence to bring Russia to the negotiating table. At the same time, India is sympathetic to Russia’s security concerns with respect to Ukraine joining NATO.

The military relationship between India and Russia has a long history. During the liberation of Bangladesh in 1971, President Nixon sent the US Navy’s Seventh Fleet to the Bay of Bengal in support of West Pakistan. The Soviets then dispatched a nuclear-armed flotilla to deter a US intervention. Russia’s presence also prevented China from opening a new front against India.

This historical context still informs India’s foreign policy stance and Russia still provides India with many of the weapons it needs to defend itself from China. In other words, India has its own reasons for maintaining close ties with Russia that have little to do with Ukraine, although these ties make India, who is also friendly to the West, a potential bridge between the warring parties.

As such, Modi’s visit to Poland, which marked the first visit by an Indian head of state in 45 years, signifies a significant shift in Indian foreign policy towards Central and Eastern Europe. Historically, New Delhi had been reluctant to actively engage with this region due to its close ties with Moscow. Consequently, relations with former Warsaw Pact members evolved slowly compared to India’s ties with the US and the European Union.

In this context, India has taken a relatively balanced stance. India needs both Russian energy and Western capital to stimulate its economy and position itself as a leader among emerging markets while competing with China. Balancing these often conflicting interests can make it difficult for India to satisfy its many global partners, although these factors also make India’s efforts towards achieving peace in Ukraine a genuine foreign policy objective.

Ukraine has overshadowed other issues faced by the developing world. If India can help resolve the crisis, it will win a great deal of respect from other developing countries who cannot afford the trade disruptions associated with the conflict and would prefer to see the billions deployed in military aid spent on much needed infrastructure. As self-proclaimed Vishwa Guru (World Teacher) and leader of the Global Majority, India hopes to play a constructive role in this regard.

The shift from a liberal-international order dominated by democracies to a multipolar world, highlights the growing significance of non-Western narratives and their role in shaping global politics. And yet, despite India’s best intentions, the effectiveness of a peace process will still be heavily influenced by the West.  

The Summit on Peace in Ukraine held in Switzerland earlier this year serves as an example. The summit proved totally ineffectual because it was unable to bring both parties to the negotiating table. India’s decision to attend the event, despite its reservations about the format, reflected a commitment to peace and diplomacy, yet it chose not to sign the Joint Communique due to the absence of Russia.

Although countries outside the traditional Western sphere are becoming more prominent in helping to resolve international disputes, the Swiss summit’s failure suggests that countries like India may struggle to achieve their diplomatic goals if Ukraine’s backers continue to encourage new offensives while discouraging dialogue with Russia.

This problem has been evident since the beginning of the conflict when Turkey was very close to facilitating a peace agreement between Moscow and Kiev in April 2022. According to reports the deal was derailed by former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson who promised more weapons for Ukraine if it chose to keep fighting instead of signing the Turkish brokered settlement.

Similarly, since the outbreak of the war, no major Western leader has visited Russia to promote peace talks, with the only exception being Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, who went to Moscow without Brussel’s blessing. This diplomatic void has subsequently been filled by states like India, South Africa, China, and Turkey, who have all tried to bring the conflict to a close.

Nevertheless, India’s approach appears to be having an impact. The German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has finally called for negotiations to end the war, while Zelensky himself has proposed that the next peace-process summit be held in India. This provides some hope that the conflict can still be resolved through dialogue. However, until Moscow and Kiev are talking to each other, a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely to be achieved.