China and India Cement Russia’s Control Over Arctic

The Arctic has long occupied a remote place in the global imagination. Vast, cold and inhospitable, it has been treated as little more than a scientific curiosity and a strategic afterthought. That indulgence is no longer possible.

Climate change, energy scarcity and great power rivalry are converging at the top of the world, turning what was once a frozen periphery into a contested geopolitical frontier.

Covering more than one sixth of the Earth’s landmass, the Arctic spans the North Pole and is defined by enormous fields of floating ice. Beneath that ice lies a prize of global significance with the region estimated to contain over 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas reserves.

Combined with some of the planet’s richest and least exploited marine ecosystems, and the strategic importance of the region becomes self-evident.

Industrialisation and rising greenhouse gas emissions have pushed Arctic temperatures sharply upward, with profound consequences. The minimum extent of Arctic sea ice has already fallen almost 2 million square kilometres below the long term average. Sea ice is shrinking at over 10% per decade. If the trend holds, the Arctic Ocean could be largely ice free in summer by 2040.

This physical transformation has enormous consequences. As ice retreats, maritime routes that were once theoretical become commercially viable. One is the Northern Sea Route, which hugs Russia’s Arctic coastline. Because ice clears here earlier and remains navigable for longer during summer, the route has the highest commercial potential, shortening the journey between Europe and Asia to about 12,800 kilometres compared with 21,000km via the Suez Canal.

Another route is the Northwest Passage, which cuts through Canada’s Arctic Archipelago and links the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. In theory, the route could reduce shipping distances between East Asia and Western Europe by about 10,000km compared to the Panama Canal.

That said, parts of the passage are only 15 metres deep, limiting its viability for the largest commercial vessels. As such, despite Trump’s overtures towards Greenland, Russia remains the dominant  player in this emerging Arctic story with the region already contributing around 10% of Russia’s GDP and accounting for 20% of its exports prior to the launch of its newest major oil field.

In September of this year, Russia quietly began shipping oil from a new Arctic mega cluster named Vostok. While initial volumes remain modest as the project is scaled, the resource is estimated at 7 billion tonnes of low sulphur crude. While recoverable reserves may be lower due to the complex drilling requirements, at full capacity Vostok’s annual output is forecast to increase Russian oil production by 20%, which is roughly 2% of total global supply.

Considering the resource wealth the region holds, it should come as no surprise Russia’s New Arctic Policy 2035 explicitly asserts sovereignty and territorial integrity over the Northern Sea Route. The United States rejects this claim, arguing that the route should be treated as an international waterway subject to freedom of navigation.

In response, Moscow has threatening to use force against vessels that fail to comply with Russian regulations. With its Northern Fleet deployed across the Arctic, Moscow enjoys a dominant military posture in the region and views US and NATO activity there as a direct challenge to its national security and economic ambitions.

Although it is geographically distant, Beijing has aligned with Russia and invested heavily in Arctic research and presence. It operates a Polar Research Institute in Shanghai, maintains a fleet of research vessels and has deployed two Xue Long icebreakers.

China established the Arctic Yellow River Station as early as 2004 and COSCO Shipping made eight transits between Europe and China through Arctic waters in 2018. That same year, Beijing launched the Polar Silk Road as a joint initiative with Russia, framing Arctic connectivity as a natural extension of the Belt and Road Initiative. Like Russia, China has now deployed nuclear powered icebreakers, becoming only the second country to do so.

The partnership is already visible on the water. Significant volumes of Russian resources are shipped to China along the Northern Sea Route. Most non-Russian vessels using the route are Chinese or bound for Chinese ports. Moscow and Beijing have conducted joint naval patrols and bomber drills near Alaskan airspace, while Chinese vessels have carried out freedom of navigation operations in the Bering Sea, mirroring US actions in the Taiwan Strait.

More recently, India has aligned with its Brics partners to gain its own foothold in the region.

The new arrangements sit within a broader framework known as the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Support agreement, which has elevated Indian and Russian naval cooperation to unprecedented levels. Although no permanent bases are involved, Vladivostok will be utilized as a forward logistics hub for the Indian navy, offering access to Russian facilities for repair, refuelling and resupply. This alone could shave weeks off long range deployments.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has effectively aligned India with Russia’s vision of the High North. This matters. As competition for influence in the Arctic intensifies, Washington has worked to assemble a coalition of like-minded states to resist Russian claims of hegemonic control. India’s endorsement of Moscow’s approach weakens that effort and underscores the limits of US influence over New Delhi’s strategic calculus.

India’s interests are pragmatic. As its exports grow, New Delhi is looking to expand maritime trade routes and secure reliable passage for oil and other critical commodities. In light of the recent disruptions to energy flows from the Middle East, these efforts will only intensify.

Ultimately, Russia has leveraged its geographic position and Brics alliances to cement control over its half of the Arctic. Around 50% of the region’s resources fall within Russian territorial waters and Russia’s fleet of nuclear ice breakers, existing mining and energy projects, and long established naval bases, give the Kremlin a massive headstart.