BRICS Boost Agriculture While G7 Rivals Output Declines

Agriculture is becoming a hallmark of BRICS economic vitality. From increased Brazilian coffee production, to advances in soil science in the UAE and solar-powered wells in Iran, the BRICS are innovating to increase agricultural output. Meanwhile, G7 states such as the UK and Japan face the increased risk of inflation shocks due to declines in their domestic food production.  

While agriculture tends to capture a smaller share of national GDP when an economy becomes more advanced, food production volumes remain important to a country’s economic stability by reducing reliance on imports, preventing price shocks, and supporting rural economies.

The positive economic effects of increased food production are not always directly captured in the data as agriculture often stimulates other economic sectors, such as manufacturing (due to increased processing and packaging) and services (insurance, logistics, etc.). However, this can have a significant multiplier effect that is often overlooked.

According to the World Bank, agricultural sector growth is up to three times more effective at reducing poverty compared with growth in other sectors. As such, considering the full value chain, increased agricultural output can have an outsized economic impact, acting as a vital social safety net and an important driver of poverty reduction.

BRICS Farmers Embrace Innovation

According to initial forecasts, Brazil could deliver the largest coffee crop in its history this year. Supported by favourable weather, higher productivity, and continued advances in agricultural technology, early projections put output at 66 million 60 kilogram bags. This would represent a 17% increase from 2025 and the highest figure ever recorded in official data.

The anticipated growth is being driven by better rainfall patterns and the broader use of modern farming techniques. The area under plantation is expected to expand by over 4% to roughly 2 million hectares, while average yields are forecast to rise more than 12% year on year to around 34 bags per hectare.

Prospects are especially strong for arabica coffee, with production projected at 44 million bags, an annual increase of 23%. With global demand rising and inventories at their lowest levels in more than twenty years, higher coffee prices can be expected to boost Brazil’s export revenues.

South African farmers have also expanded summer crop plantation areas for the 2025/26 season according to preliminary data. Maize, soybean and sunflower seed plantings are all up around 3%, reflecting growing confidence among farmers. With favourable rainfall, this could further support South Africa’s economic recovery while supporting job creation in rural areas.

Meanwhile, Iran is rolling out smart irrigation projects spanning around 10,000 hectares as part of a nationwide drive to enhance water security while expanding renewable energy use in the agricultural sector. The government plans to install over 200,000 solar and diesel electric wells.

This initiative complements plans for satellite-based crop monitoring which the authorities will incorporate into a national database that tracks soil quality and water availability. These efforts coincide with the expansion of water transfer networks as well as programs which assist rural communities in making better informed planting decisions.

Meanwhile, the UAE is conducting research into sandy soils in an effort to improve crop yields on marginal land. Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa University has begun experimenting with nanocellulose fibres extracted from pineapple peels and initial results are promising.  

According to Emirati research, nanocellulose fibres enhance soil moisture retention, structural stability, and nutrient accessibility, improving the productivity of sandy soils. The project hopes to address major regional issues such as water shortages, poor soil quality, and food security in dry and arid landscapes.

By converting pineapple peels into useful agricultural inputs, the initiative reduces organic waste while advancing a circular bioeconomy. Transforming these by-products into soil-improving materials encourages sustainable land use and supports climate-smart farming practices in water-stressed regions.

While forecasts are subject to revision and tariffs, sanctions, and war related risks could impact overall agricultural production and export volumes in the near term, increased planting areas and the use of technology to improve yields bodes well for BRICS farmers over the long-term.

British and Japanese Food Production in Decline

In contrast to the rapid expansion of BRICS food production, Britain and Japan have seen their own output decline. While China remains the world’s largest grain producer, Russia emerges as a net pork exporter, and Brazil dominates the global market for soybeans, coffee, chicken and beef, countries like Japan and the UK risk falling behind.

According to the latest report from the All Party Parliamentary Group on Science and Technology in Agriculture presented in Westminster, the UK is becoming increasingly reliant on food imports due to a decline in agricultural self-sufficiency. The report also suggests government policies may be exacerbating the problem.

Over the past 25 years, the UK has lost nearly 800,000 hectares of farmland, contributing to a 12% decline in self-sufficiency. The report also highlights declining yields and food production as a result of extreme weather, rising input costs, tighter restrictions on input use, and policies around land-use which could lead to further declines. 

The analysis concluded that government land use policies related to housing, biodiversity, and net zero priorities, could see up to a quarter of British farmland lost to non-food uses by 2050, leading to a 30% drop in output. The report controversially highlights the increased deployment of solar panels on farmland as a major contributing factor.

A similar trend has played out in Japan with total farmland coverage decreasing 30% compared to its 1961 peak according to the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. Major factors behind the decline include the conversion of farmland into residential or industrial sites, and the degradation of formerly productive agricultural land.

The number of farmers in Japan also continues to decline. Those engaged in self-employed farming as their main profession, referred to as ‘core agricultural workers’ were estimated to number just over one million in 2024 compared to two and a half million in 2000. Farmers in Japan are greying too, with the average age for agricultural workers approaching 70.

While Japan achieved a 6,000 hectare year-on-year increase in its rice planting area for 2025 in response to higher levels of food price inflation, the 2025 planting area was still only 70% of the country’s 1999 levels. This equates to an average annual loss of some 10,000 hectares.

So while the BRICS (which already accounts for the three of the world’s top four food producers) are developing technological solutions to increase yields, major G7 economies such as Japan and the United Kingdom are becoming increasingly reliant on imports to feed their populations.